Our average temperature will rise from 0.5°C to 1.5°C by 2040, and 3.0°C by 2090.
Our average maximum temperature will rise by 3 to 40C by 2090.
Our average minimum temperature will rise by 1 to 20C by 2090.
Our number of days over 25°C will increase:
- 10+ more days over 25°C per year by 2040.
- 20+ more days over 25°C per year by 2090 for Christchurch.
- Up to 40 more days over 25°C per year in parts of Banks Peninsula.
Our number of frosts will decrease:
- 10 fewer frosts per year by 2040.
- 20 fewer frosts per year by 2090, and significantly fewer than this for inland areas.
Our seasonal temperature will change – particularly in autumn when summer will extend.
What this will mean
- Heat stress will affect the health of people, animals and plants.
- Heating costs will decrease in winter, cooling costs will increase in summer.
- Demand for drinking water will increase when water is likely to be scarcer.
- Risk of wildfire will increase, especially in high winds and drought, when water is scarce for firefighting.
- Water quality will deteriorate, made worse by increased water use for human activity.
- Ecosystems will be under threat. Some species will become extinct.
- Loss of biodiversity will impact mahinga kai and customary practices.
- Current agriculture and horticulture will be at risk of new pests and diseases. Higher temperatures may allow different crops to be grown.
- Summer leisure and tourism season will be extended, but the ski season will be shorter and glaciers will be disappearing.